Extreme heat is impacting where people can reasonably live (2024)

If this summer has got you feeling like an ant under the magnifying glass, welcome to the club. More Americans than ever are expected to suffer through extreme temperaturesover the next 30 years, according to a national risk assessment released by the First Street Foundation. Extreme heat waves, in fact, are expected to last longer and impact more communities as the climate continues to warm. By 2050, the nonprofit assessing climate change risk predicts an “extreme heat belt” to wrap around the southeastern and western United States, affecting over 107 million residents.

What does First Street define as ‘extreme’? How about over 1,000 U.S. counties projected to experience at least one day above 125 degrees by 2053. Yikes. This real estate over this extreme heat belt rolls down the West Coast into northern Texas, Louisiana, and Florida. The dark red blotches aren’t isolated to southern climes, though, stretching as far north as Illinois, Indiana, and even Wisconsin.

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The peer-reviewed extreme heat model is the research and technology nonprofit’s sixth National Risk Assessment of hazardous heat. The model measures the seven hottest days expected for any property this year, and extends that metric to estimate how many of those days could be experienced in the next three decades.

First Street identifies these potentially hazardous climates so that homeowners can prepare for increasingly inclement conditions. The report assesses “how the frequency, duration, and intensity of extremely hot days will change over the next 30 years,” illustrating how changing climate conditions impact personal property. This analysis arises from “high-resolution measurements of land surface temperatures, canopy cover, impervious surfaces, land cover, and proximity to water to calculate the current heat exposure, and then adjusts for future forecasted emissions scenarios”.

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For 2023, the model found 50 counties that are home to 8.1 million residents expected to experience temperatures above 125 degrees in 2023 — the highest level in the National Weather Services’ heat index. By 2053, 1,023 counties are expected to exceed this temperature, an area that is home to 107.6 million Americans and covers a quarter of the U.S. land area.

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“We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125°F and the results will be dire,” Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation, said in a press release.

NWS data reveals extreme heat to be, by far, the top weather-related killer in the U.S. How do you die when it’s hot? Heat-related illness occurs when the body can no longer cool itself due to insufficient levels of fluid and/or salt after sweating too much and not consuming enough water dehydration. A combination of high heat and humidity can lead to muscle cramps, heat exhaustion, and finally heat stroke.

The most at risk are often the people with the least means to adapt to the situation: kids, the elderly, people of color, and poor folk. According to the NWS, this risk is multiplied in dense urban centers that create urban heat islands. Construction can also magnify these conditions.

The Washington Post found that, by the middle of this century, “71 percent of the poorest neighborhoods in the country will likely endure severe heat.”

Extreme heat will also make outdoor work more dangerous. First Street estimates that there are roughly 3.8 million outdoors workers today who experience at least one annual severe heat wave. In 30 years, the model estimates that number to jump nearly 30 percent to 4.9 million people.

The most severe shift in local temperatures, for example, is in Miami-Dade County where the model posits that its seven hottest days, currently at 103 degrees, will increase to 34 days at that same temperature by 2053.

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First Street’s prognosticator is now incorporated with its Risk Factor tool, for every property in the contiguous United States. Risk Factor users can not only determine their Heat Factor in the next 30 years, but assess their Flood Factor and Fire Factor as well, learning the specific risks to their location.

These extremes could suggest a lot more climate migration and a very different real estate market very soon.

“If people move then you have an impact to the tax base and changes to demand for properties and values overall,” Eby told CNBC.

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Extreme heat is impacting where people can reasonably live (2024)

FAQs

What places would become too hot for humans to live? ›

Unfortunately, the hot spots for exceeding this wet-bulb temperature threshold include some of the most populous parts of the world: the Indus River Valley in India and Pakistan, eastern Asia, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.

What temperature is too hot to be habitable? ›

Our studies on young healthy men and women show that this upper environmental limit is even lower than the theorized 35 C. It occurs at a wet-bulb temperature of about 87 F (31 C) across a range of environments above 50% relative humidity. That would equal 87 F at 100% humidity or 100 F (38 C) at 60% humidity.

What temperature is too hot for humans to survive? ›

Researchers investigated when the body starts exerting more energy to keep itself cool at high temperatures. They found that this upper-temperature limit lies between 40℃ (104F) and 50℃ (122F) when the human body stops functioning optimally.

At what temperature will Earth be uninhabitable? ›

With global warming a hot topic of debate, you may be surprised by how close our heat threshold is to the current global temperature. Humans need to sweat to survive in warm conditions, and that's only possible if the combination of temperature and humidity – known as the wet-bulb temperature – stays below around 35°C.

What is the hottest livable place? ›

Dallol, Ethiopia

Northern Ethiopia's remote Danakil Depression has two claims to fame: it's reckoned to be where humans originally evolved (due to discovery of many hominin fossils) and holds the record for Earth's hottest inhabited place based on an average annual temperature from 1960-1966 of 34.4C.

Will it get too hot for us to live? ›

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can cause heat stroke or in severe cases, even heart attacks. As human-induced climate change continues, the Earth will only continue to warm. Scientists believe it could be only a matter of time before the planet reaches a point beyond the point that a human could withstand.

What regions will be uninhabitable by 2050? ›

Future Hot Spots

But climate models tell us certain regions are likely to exceed those temperatures in the next 30-to-50 years. The most vulnerable areas include South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea by around 2050; and Eastern China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Brazil by 2070.

Can you survive in 90 degree heat? ›

The wet-bulb temperature that marks the upper limit of what the human body can handle is 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 Celsius). But any temperatures above 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 Celsius) can be dangerous and deadly.

Can you survive in 100 degree heat? ›

If it's 100° Celsius, then a human can withstand that only for a few minutes. 100° F is very close to the body's normal temperature. As the temperature increases beyond this, the body is less able to cool and maintain its core temperature, resulting in rapidly declining endurance.

Will Texas get too hot to live in? ›

(TNS) Over the next 30 years, Texas and other parts of the central U.S. are at risk of being exposed to extreme he—at — temperatures exceeding 125 degrees. The human body can no longer tolerate heat at that levels.

Can humans survive in 100% humidity? ›

Scientists have identified the maximum mix of heat and humidity a human body can survive. Even a healthy young person will die after enduring six hours of 35-degree Celsius (95 Fahrenheit) warmth when coupled with 100 percent humidity, but new research shows that threshold could be significantly lower.

Which climate is best for humans? ›

Type C: Moderate or Temperate Climates

Often described as moderate in temperature and precipitation, type C climates are the most favorable to human habitation in that they host the largest human population densities on the planet. Type C climates are found mostly in the midlatitudes bordering the tropics.

What will humans look like in 3000? ›

Humans in the year 3000 will have a larger skull but, at the same time, a very small brain. "It's possible that we will develop thicker skulls, but if a scientific theory is to be believed, technology can also change the size of our brains," they write.

How long do humans have left on Earth? ›

Given the limitations of ordinary observation and modeling, expert elicitation is frequently used instead to obtain probability estimates. Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct in 7,800,000 years, according to J.

How hot will Earth be in 2030? ›

It says that global average temperatures are estimated to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels sometime around “the first half of the 2030s,” as humans continue to burn coal, oil and natural gas.

What places are too hot to live in 2050? ›

Future Hot Spots

But climate models tell us certain regions are likely to exceed those temperatures in the next 30-to-50 years. The most vulnerable areas include South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea by around 2050; and Eastern China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Brazil by 2070.

Will Earth be too hot to live on? ›

We have about 300 million to perhaps 450 million years until the Sun gets too hot for life on Earth. The planet is not in any real danger until then.

What is too hot to sustain life? ›

How hot is too hot for survival? Researchers cranked up the temperature on volunteers to find out. A new study suggests that once temperatures hit 104 to 122 degrees, our bodies may stop working optimally.

Will Phoenix become too hot to live in? ›

But it can easily get much hotter. Arizona was the third-fastest-warming state in the US between 1970 and 2018, according to a Climate Central study. And a recent ProPublica study suggested the Phoenix region will be among the country's least-habitable by 2050, with half the year spent at temperatures above 95F.

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