All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180046

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening.

Central to eastern Gulf Coast

Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail.

Northern Great Plains

Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight.

Mid-South and south-central TX

Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding.

A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk.

..Grams.. 05/18/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook Summary

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the Southeast and Carolinas on Saturday, and parts of the Upper Midwest. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but occasional severe hail and a tornado or two may also occur.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across portions of the Southeast and Carolinas on Saturday, and parts of the Upper Midwest. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but occasional severe hail and a tornado or two may also occur.

Southeast/Carolinas

There is still some uncertainty with the placement and intensity of an MCS that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning along/near the central Gulf Coast. This convection will be tied to a mid-level shortwave trough and related 50-70 kt jet that is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward across the Southeast and Carolinas through the period. Due to the influence of prior convection in the Day 1 period, there should be a fairly sharp gradient of low-level moisture and instability along a convectively reinforced baroclinic boundary extending from southern AL into GA.

Most guidance suggests the ongoing MCS will continue east-northeastward over these areas into SC Saturday morning while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of weak to moderate instability downstream. Modest but sufficient low-level shear should also be present to support a threat for an embedded tornado or two. Greater severe wind potential will likely remain confined along and south of the convectively reinforced boundary. But, some chance for strong to locally severe thunderstorms with associated hail and gusty wind threat may also exist across a broader portion of the Southeast into NC along/south of a cold front through Saturday afternoon.

Upper Midwest

Within broad upper troughing across the northwestern CONUS and western Canada, a compact shortwave trough should advance northeastward over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the day. A related surface cold front is forecast to surge eastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A narrow corridor of weak to locally moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE generally ranging 500-1500 J/kg, should develop through Saturday afternoon along/ahead of the front from parts of far eastern MN into WI and the U.P. of MI. A belt of strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow will accompany the shortwave trough, and contribute to around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Organized thunderstorms should develop by Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated threat for both damaging winds and severe hail while spreading eastward through the early evening. This activity should eventually weaken through Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Central Plains

Low-level convergence along the cold front and large-scale ascent aloft become more limited with southward extent into IA and central Plains. Some guidance does show convective development across these regions, including near a surface triple point across KS. However, the overall severe threat appears too limited/isolated to include a Marginal Risk at this time.

..Gleason.. 05/17/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of central Kansas into central/eastern Nebraska on Sunday. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards, though a tornado or two also will be possible.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170725

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of central Kansas into central/eastern Nebraska on Sunday. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards, though a tornado or two also will be possible.

Central Plains vicinity

A somewhat low-amplitude upper shortwave trough will develop east/northeast from the central/southern Rockies into the central Plains through Sunday evening. Moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the OK/TX Panhandles into KS/NE ahead of the trough. At the surface, a dryline will extend southward from west-central NE to near the OK/TX border by mid/late afternoon. To the east of the dryline, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common. Strong heating and steep to very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Some uncertainty exists regarding the degree of capping across the region. This is mainly due to warm temps in the 850-700 mb layer. However, some guidance depicts early convection ongoing across NE Sunday morning. If this occurs, this could impact the airmass and subsequent convective development during the late afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, southeasterly low-level flow will provide convergence along the dryline as large-scale ascent increases by 21-00z.

Supercell wind profiles and an otherwise favorable low- and upper-level pattern should support isolated to scattered severe convection. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat dry midlevels will support a risk for damaging gusts, while very steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs suggest large-hail potential exists. The tornado risk is somewhat more uncertain given marginal low-level moisture.

A more conditional risk will extend southward along the TX/OK border near the dryline. Better low-level moisture will exist further south, but forcing for ascent will be weaker. If a storm can develop, severe gusts and large hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/17/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170858 SPC AC 170858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon-Day 5/Tue – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest

Increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the southern/central Plains by Monday afternoon/evening ahead of a deepening upper trough across the western U.S. Subtle lead shortwave impulses will eject across the KS/NE vicinity after 21-00z Monday night as a surface front drops southeast across the northern Plains. Rich boundary-layer moisture will spread northward across OK/KS as at least weak surface cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. This overall pattern will support some severe potential somewhere from NE/KS/OK to the Lower MO Valley into early Tuesday. However, uncertainty remains given the subtle nature of ejecting shortwave impulses and the potential for ongoing convection Monday morning, leaving some questions over smaller-scale details. Nevertheless, enough consistency exists to introduce a 15 percent severe probability for Monday evening/overnight ahead of the surface front across portions of the central Plains vicinity. Given uncertainty, this area may shift in the coming days.

On Tuesday, the upper trough is expected to eject east/northeast across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. A deepening surface cyclone will lift northeast from KS to the Upper Midwest as the trough ejects over the region, and a cold front will push east/southeast. A very moist/unstable and favorably sheared environment will exist from eastern KS/OK to the upper Great Lakes ahead of the surface low and upper trough. Organized convection is expected across a broad area. This area likely will change some in coming days given mesoscale uncertainties tied to likely convection in the Day 4/Mon time frame continuing into Day 5/Tue.

Day 6/Wed – Ohio Valley to the Mid-South

By Wednesday the upper trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to Ontario/Quebec. Large-scale ascent will quickly shunt north of the international border. The surface cold front is expected to become more diffuse as the surface cyclone also shift north into Canada. Still, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist boundary layer across the Ohio Valley, and some severe potential may persist. Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

With southward extent into the Mid-South vicinity, some severe potential could also persist given an expected moist/unstable airmass and potentially ongoing morning MCS. However, upper-level support will not be as favorable heading into the afternoon hours, and confidence is too low for severe probabilities at this time.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Forecast guidance is not in as good agreement by the end of the forecast period. The overall pattern may become less amplified and more quasi-zonal. However, some guidance does indicate at least some weak shortwave impulses migrating through westerly flow, particularly across the southern Plains vicinity. Trends will be monitored as a potential area of interest could develop across portions of the southern Plains around Day 7/Thu.

..Leitman.. 05/17/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170858 SPC AC 170858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon-Day 5/Tue – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest

Increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the southern/central Plains by Monday afternoon/evening ahead of a deepening upper trough across the western U.S. Subtle lead shortwave impulses will eject across the KS/NE vicinity after 21-00z Monday night as a surface front drops southeast across the northern Plains. Rich boundary-layer moisture will spread northward across OK/KS as at least weak surface cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. This overall pattern will support some severe potential somewhere from NE/KS/OK to the Lower MO Valley into early Tuesday. However, uncertainty remains given the subtle nature of ejecting shortwave impulses and the potential for ongoing convection Monday morning, leaving some questions over smaller-scale details. Nevertheless, enough consistency exists to introduce a 15 percent severe probability for Monday evening/overnight ahead of the surface front across portions of the central Plains vicinity. Given uncertainty, this area may shift in the coming days.

On Tuesday, the upper trough is expected to eject east/northeast across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. A deepening surface cyclone will lift northeast from KS to the Upper Midwest as the trough ejects over the region, and a cold front will push east/southeast. A very moist/unstable and favorably sheared environment will exist from eastern KS/OK to the upper Great Lakes ahead of the surface low and upper trough. Organized convection is expected across a broad area. This area likely will change some in coming days given mesoscale uncertainties tied to likely convection in the Day 4/Mon time frame continuing into Day 5/Tue.

Day 6/Wed – Ohio Valley to the Mid-South

By Wednesday the upper trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to Ontario/Quebec. Large-scale ascent will quickly shunt north of the international border. The surface cold front is expected to become more diffuse as the surface cyclone also shift north into Canada. Still, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist boundary layer across the Ohio Valley, and some severe potential may persist. Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

With southward extent into the Mid-South vicinity, some severe potential could also persist given an expected moist/unstable airmass and potentially ongoing morning MCS. However, upper-level support will not be as favorable heading into the afternoon hours, and confidence is too low for severe probabilities at this time.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Forecast guidance is not in as good agreement by the end of the forecast period. The overall pattern may become less amplified and more quasi-zonal. However, some guidance does indicate at least some weak shortwave impulses migrating through westerly flow, particularly across the southern Plains vicinity. Trends will be monitored as a potential area of interest could develop across portions of the southern Plains around Day 7/Thu.

..Leitman.. 05/17/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170858 SPC AC 170858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon-Day 5/Tue – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest

Increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the southern/central Plains by Monday afternoon/evening ahead of a deepening upper trough across the western U.S. Subtle lead shortwave impulses will eject across the KS/NE vicinity after 21-00z Monday night as a surface front drops southeast across the northern Plains. Rich boundary-layer moisture will spread northward across OK/KS as at least weak surface cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. This overall pattern will support some severe potential somewhere from NE/KS/OK to the Lower MO Valley into early Tuesday. However, uncertainty remains given the subtle nature of ejecting shortwave impulses and the potential for ongoing convection Monday morning, leaving some questions over smaller-scale details. Nevertheless, enough consistency exists to introduce a 15 percent severe probability for Monday evening/overnight ahead of the surface front across portions of the central Plains vicinity. Given uncertainty, this area may shift in the coming days.

On Tuesday, the upper trough is expected to eject east/northeast across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. A deepening surface cyclone will lift northeast from KS to the Upper Midwest as the trough ejects over the region, and a cold front will push east/southeast. A very moist/unstable and favorably sheared environment will exist from eastern KS/OK to the upper Great Lakes ahead of the surface low and upper trough. Organized convection is expected across a broad area. This area likely will change some in coming days given mesoscale uncertainties tied to likely convection in the Day 4/Mon time frame continuing into Day 5/Tue.

Day 6/Wed – Ohio Valley to the Mid-South

By Wednesday the upper trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to Ontario/Quebec. Large-scale ascent will quickly shunt north of the international border. The surface cold front is expected to become more diffuse as the surface cyclone also shift north into Canada. Still, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist boundary layer across the Ohio Valley, and some severe potential may persist. Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

With southward extent into the Mid-South vicinity, some severe potential could also persist given an expected moist/unstable airmass and potentially ongoing morning MCS. However, upper-level support will not be as favorable heading into the afternoon hours, and confidence is too low for severe probabilities at this time.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Forecast guidance is not in as good agreement by the end of the forecast period. The overall pattern may become less amplified and more quasi-zonal. However, some guidance does indicate at least some weak shortwave impulses migrating through westerly flow, particularly across the southern Plains vicinity. Trends will be monitored as a potential area of interest could develop across portions of the southern Plains around Day 7/Thu.

..Leitman.. 05/17/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170858 SPC AC 170858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon-Day 5/Tue – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest

Increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the southern/central Plains by Monday afternoon/evening ahead of a deepening upper trough across the western U.S. Subtle lead shortwave impulses will eject across the KS/NE vicinity after 21-00z Monday night as a surface front drops southeast across the northern Plains. Rich boundary-layer moisture will spread northward across OK/KS as at least weak surface cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. This overall pattern will support some severe potential somewhere from NE/KS/OK to the Lower MO Valley into early Tuesday. However, uncertainty remains given the subtle nature of ejecting shortwave impulses and the potential for ongoing convection Monday morning, leaving some questions over smaller-scale details. Nevertheless, enough consistency exists to introduce a 15 percent severe probability for Monday evening/overnight ahead of the surface front across portions of the central Plains vicinity. Given uncertainty, this area may shift in the coming days.

On Tuesday, the upper trough is expected to eject east/northeast across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. A deepening surface cyclone will lift northeast from KS to the Upper Midwest as the trough ejects over the region, and a cold front will push east/southeast. A very moist/unstable and favorably sheared environment will exist from eastern KS/OK to the upper Great Lakes ahead of the surface low and upper trough. Organized convection is expected across a broad area. This area likely will change some in coming days given mesoscale uncertainties tied to likely convection in the Day 4/Mon time frame continuing into Day 5/Tue.

Day 6/Wed – Ohio Valley to the Mid-South

By Wednesday the upper trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to Ontario/Quebec. Large-scale ascent will quickly shunt north of the international border. The surface cold front is expected to become more diffuse as the surface cyclone also shift north into Canada. Still, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist boundary layer across the Ohio Valley, and some severe potential may persist. Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

With southward extent into the Mid-South vicinity, some severe potential could also persist given an expected moist/unstable airmass and potentially ongoing morning MCS. However, upper-level support will not be as favorable heading into the afternoon hours, and confidence is too low for severe probabilities at this time.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Forecast guidance is not in as good agreement by the end of the forecast period. The overall pattern may become less amplified and more quasi-zonal. However, some guidance does indicate at least some weak shortwave impulses migrating through westerly flow, particularly across the southern Plains vicinity. Trends will be monitored as a potential area of interest could develop across portions of the southern Plains around Day 7/Thu.

..Leitman.. 05/17/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170858 SPC AC 170858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Mon-Day 5/Tue – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest

Increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the southern/central Plains by Monday afternoon/evening ahead of a deepening upper trough across the western U.S. Subtle lead shortwave impulses will eject across the KS/NE vicinity after 21-00z Monday night as a surface front drops southeast across the northern Plains. Rich boundary-layer moisture will spread northward across OK/KS as at least weak surface cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains. This overall pattern will support some severe potential somewhere from NE/KS/OK to the Lower MO Valley into early Tuesday. However, uncertainty remains given the subtle nature of ejecting shortwave impulses and the potential for ongoing convection Monday morning, leaving some questions over smaller-scale details. Nevertheless, enough consistency exists to introduce a 15 percent severe probability for Monday evening/overnight ahead of the surface front across portions of the central Plains vicinity. Given uncertainty, this area may shift in the coming days.

On Tuesday, the upper trough is expected to eject east/northeast across the Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. A deepening surface cyclone will lift northeast from KS to the Upper Midwest as the trough ejects over the region, and a cold front will push east/southeast. A very moist/unstable and favorably sheared environment will exist from eastern KS/OK to the upper Great Lakes ahead of the surface low and upper trough. Organized convection is expected across a broad area. This area likely will change some in coming days given mesoscale uncertainties tied to likely convection in the Day 4/Mon time frame continuing into Day 5/Tue.

Day 6/Wed – Ohio Valley to the Mid-South

By Wednesday the upper trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to Ontario/Quebec. Large-scale ascent will quickly shunt north of the international border. The surface cold front is expected to become more diffuse as the surface cyclone also shift north into Canada. Still, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist boundary layer across the Ohio Valley, and some severe potential may persist. Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

With southward extent into the Mid-South vicinity, some severe potential could also persist given an expected moist/unstable airmass and potentially ongoing morning MCS. However, upper-level support will not be as favorable heading into the afternoon hours, and confidence is too low for severe probabilities at this time.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Forecast guidance is not in as good agreement by the end of the forecast period. The overall pattern may become less amplified and more quasi-zonal. However, some guidance does indicate at least some weak shortwave impulses migrating through westerly flow, particularly across the southern Plains vicinity. Trends will be monitored as a potential area of interest could develop across portions of the southern Plains around Day 7/Thu.

..Leitman.. 05/17/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Friday, May 17

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, May 18

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, May 22

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Thursday, May 23

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Friday, May 24

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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